Subscribe now

I referenced this recent analysis:

And I referenced this recent podcast interview, which I would encourage you to watch:

*Disclaimer: I own shares of these companies. This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the potential for loss. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Subscribe now

It didn’t. Instead, Iranian state media published a draft plan on Thursday that would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from the strait entirely, bar other nations from transiting until “compensation” is paid, and impose penalties equal to 20% of cargo value on violators. Iranian officials also warned that the route agreement being finalized with Oman will not fully reopen the strait. Oil rallied Thursday and Friday as the market digested yet another false dawn.

The flow data tells the same story. Here’s the latest tanker map from Bloomberg’s Javier Blas:

Source: Javier Blas / Bloomberg

Whatever gets signed, Iran retains control over how much oil moves through Hormuz - and it is using that control as leverage.

As this goes to publication Saturday morning, there are reports of attacks on vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, including one verified by the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which obviously puts any “deal” at risk:

Meanwhile, U.S. petroleum inventories continued draining. This week’s EIA weekly report showed a surprise 2.5 million barrel commercial crude build, but the SPR drew another 2.8 million barrels to a fresh multi-decade low, gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels to 7% below the five-year average, and distillate fell 3.5 million barrels to 12% below the five-year average:

Inventory levels like these have historically been associated with much higher oil prices. The gap between the two is the market’s confidence that a Hormuz resolution is coming. As we are seeing this morning, this confidence in a deal may be misplaced:

In the meantime, the oil supply response to low inventories and supply risk remains modest. U.S. oil rigs rose by 3 to 454 this week per Baker Hughes, grinding higher for several weeks now, but producers are clearly not rushing to drill their way into a disruption that could resolve on a headline or Trump Truth Social post.

Where does this leave the oil market? Short term, headline-driven volatility in both directions as the Hormuz negotiations drag on. Medium term, the picture has not changed: ultra-low global inventories, an SPR with less capacity to cushion the next disruption, U.S. products well below normal, and Iran positioned to maintain control of Strait of Hormuz oil flows - and limit them - even under a deal. This all adds up to medium term higher prices, in my view, supported by inventory levels that alone would call for much higher prices.

Subscribe now

Net speculative positioning in oil futures markets shows something similar, with positioning near multi-decade lows despite low inventory levels, constrained supply, and active attacks on oil tankers happening right now. If speculators return to the oil futures market, or if shortages manifest, prices could rise rapidly like they did in March:

Even in the current depressed (dare I say suppressed?) oil price environment, I continue to find deeply discounted value in the sector, which I highlight here on Bison Insights. In particular, I’ve shared updates recently on a top idea at a large discount to peers, with high performing wells, an active buyback, and recent compelling tuck-in acquisitions. And updated well results are driving the share price higher of this discounted small cap oil & gas producer, which I flagged in the Bison Insights chat prior to Q2 earnings based on public data, and published an article confirming after earnings.

Bison Insights Portfolio Tracker

The tracker shows how the ideas have increased as a group over time, with each idea weighted at the time of publication based on its risk profile and my conviction level, translating the above single-idea performance into a composite:

My research process has been honed over nearly two decades of professional energy equity investing. Here on Bison Insights, I share my thoughts on energy markets and specific securities. These have mostly done very well so far since Bison Insights was launched, as you can see above. You can also see that I honestly and fairly represent these, including the inevitable poor performing ideas and difficult days and weeks that come hand in hand with the real-life performance of publicly traded securities. You can see more about this below.

Subscribe now

Recent Media

While I’ve been fortunate to appear on a number of podcasts and financial TV shows, I think this particular interview is worth watching if you haven’t yet. It is focused on my investment process and how it is substantially differentiated:

Subscribe now

*Disclaimer: I own shares of these companies. This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the potential for loss. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Many famous hedge fund managers and brilliant investors have been on Odds on Open. It was an honor to be featured on it, and I will admit a strong sense of impostor syndrome seeing myself on it and sharing this.

I am sharing this anyway, as the host Ethan asked fantastic questions, we explored aspects of my investment process that I may have never previously discussed, and perhaps there is an opportunity to “pay it forward” - perhaps something to share with others from what I’ve scraped together over years of challenges, hard work, and constant learning.

I am constantly searching for the next great investment idea, often listening to brilliant investors and fund managers on podcasts like this, hoping to glean something from them, and reading many books, articles and company reports. Perhaps there is something in here that may contribute to your own “latticework.” Enjoy!

Subscribe now

*Disclaimer: This is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation. There can be no assurance of accuracy of anything written or spoken. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by me here on Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.

These were the latest in a long series of pauses, extensions and claimed diplomatic breakthroughs since the war began:

• March 23–26: Trump twice postponed attacks on Iran’s power grid, citing productive negotiations.

• April 7: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire to allow time for a proposed agreement.

• April 21: The ceasefire was extended indefinitely. Strikes resumed May 8.

• May 18: A major strike was held off because serious negotiations were reportedly underway. Strikes resumed by May 27.

• June 11: Trump canceled a threatened attack after claiming a negotiating breakthrough.

• June 17: The two sides signed an initial agreement and began a 60-day period to negotiate a final deal.

• July 27: Trump paused daily strikes to give diplomacy another chance.

• August 1: Trump canceled another planned attack after claiming that Middle Eastern allies had reached the parameters of a deal that would reopen the Strait.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is negotiating with the United States. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that Tehran is talking only with Oman about a temporary route for safe navigation through the Strait. That said, Iran has denied negotiations in the past even while talks were underway, including shortly before the first MOU was signed.

This pattern of market-moving announcements strongly suggests that some of Trump’s comments are primarily intended to “jawbone” oil prices lower, and by doing so, push US stock and bond markets higher. Back in January, when oil prices were much lower, I highlighted how price suppression attempts like these have historically led to much higher prices in the medium to longer term, and that their recent effectiveness increased the odds of higher oil prices sooner than later:

Jawboning may not be the sole extent of the Trump administration’s willingness to intervene in oil markets. Over the weekend, the United States and Japan confirmed coordinated purchases of yen after the currency fell to a 40-year low in order to help support it. This interference is notable because average daily spot trading in the yen is approximately seven times the notional value of daily NYMEX WTI futures trading, suggesting that if government intervention can move a market as large as the Yen currency market, then they surely can do the same in the much smaller oil market.

I address evidence that the U.S. government is shorting oil futures below, but this Yen intervention does show the capacity and willingness to intervene directly - in a much larger market. Considering the large, ongoing inventory drawdowns yet the relatively low price of crude oil, and the clear focus of the Trump Administration on oil prices, it’s understandable why there is an increasingly widespread view that oil prices are being manipulated.

Below, I review oil market fundamentals and share my thoughts on government intervention in the oil market.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This isn’t an offer, solicitation or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence.

Read more

Fully aware of these issues, I’m interested in this company now for the technical improvements they’re making in developing one of its key oil plays, and the potential for reversion to the average value of its comps, which is close to its third-party-assessed reserve value. Early results have been successful, though the market doesn’t appear to be taking notice yet. Continued execution could justify a higher valuation multiple and substantial share price upside:

They have released Q2 results, which came in above expectations, and another month of public well data. In this article, I’ll delve into the updates on each and what they imply for the thesis.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself.

Read more

Subscribe now

Commodity Culture is a top commodities podcast, with over 130,000 subscribers. Jesse Day hosts the podcast.

I interviewed Jesse here on Bison Insights in May of this year. Jesse shared what he has learned interviewing leading commodities experts, his thoughts on selecting commodities and producer equities, and his experience selecting a Bison Insights idea - which he bought and did very well with!

Subscribe now

*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares discussed and may buy or sell it at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.

Bison Insights ideas have done very well versus energy stock ETFs like and versus the broader market . Past performance may not be indicative, but so far so good!

The table below shows the increase / (decrease) of each idea since I shared it, along with its initial and current weighting:

Paid subscribers can see the exact positions and my reasoning for the updated changes below. In short - great results have me “doubling up” on my two top ideas, and I’m simplifying two small “left tail risk hedge” ideas.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Investments incur risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

Subscribe now

I referenced this article in the discussion:

*Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

These are three are excellent oil companies, with different strengths. Tamarack has built significant scale in the Clearwater and used waterflooding to reduce declines and improve capital efficiency. Headwater has repeatedly turned inexpensive acreage into valuable new oilfield discoveries. Cardinal has combined low-decline conventional production with successful thermal development and a steady dividend.

I’ve followed all three closely, and I’ve made money owning shares in each of them at different points. Their strong outperformance has been well deserved:

When I look at these companies, one thing I find remarkable is that there is another company that would fit right in, very much resembling these three oil companies - but its stock trades at a large discount to them.

This Canadian oil producer has a similar oil weighting, comparable cash-flow margins, competitive development costs and a long reserve life:

The company also produces more oil than two of these companies and is pursuing many of the same strategies, including multilateral drilling and waterflood expansion. Yet the market continues to value it at a fraction of these peers.

This large discount was once easier to understand. The company had legitimate governance and capital-allocation problems that included large acquisitions that increased debt and diluted shareholders. Those decisions damaged investor confidence and caused its stock to underperform.

But the business has changed considerably over the past three years. Management has repeatedly exceeded production expectations, repaid debt, repurchased shares and improved the asset base through highly accretive bolt-on acquisitions.

These improvements led one leading investment bank to recently comment following another better-than-expected quarter:

“Overall, this is a solid quarter … We believe that posting better-than-expected quarters will start to earn more confidence in the story from the market and be a key factor in driving down the valuation discount relative to mid-sized peers.”

I agree. This company is increasingly operating like the higher-valued producers discussed in this article, and it is remarkably similar on key operating metrics - but the market is still valuing it based on its distant past.

In this article, I will explain some of the characteristics that make Tamarack, Headwater and Cardinal such strong businesses, why each may deserve the premium valuation the market is awarding it, and why this overlooked Bison Insights idea is much more similar to them than its current valuation suggests. The upside potential, even in a partial re-rating scenario, is enormous:

This is one of my largest holdings and is a top idea in the Bison Insights composite index, which has outperformed the ETF and the broader market since publication began one year ago:

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/24/oil-to-hit-record-high-prices-may-be-too-low-with-current-risk.html

Subscribe now

For a more in-depth view, I shared this “buy signal” earlier this month, ahead of the 30% move higher in oil:

And I shared a live video presentation on one of my favorite ideas earlier this week, which is already up 10% and has enormous upside potential:

Subscribe now

*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares discussed and may buy or sell it at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.

Read more

Subscribe now

I highlighted recent articles, including this high hit rate, rare bullish oil market signal:

This article about the boom in the Canadian oil and gas industry:

Compelling oil stocks in the current market:

Oil’s turn in the commodity cycle, from December 2025:

Popular stocks can be expensive and risky. My favorite natural gas stock, vs this overhyped natural gas producer touted by the biggest Substacks and all over TV and social media:

*Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. I own shares and/or related securities of companies mentioned and may buy or sell them at any time. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Investments incur risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The company publicly disclosed the milestone in its latest investor presentation, but it hasn’t formally press released it out of abundant conservatism, while waiting for the asset to fully ramp up.

The situation reminds me of Baytex in 2021, which was another small oil producer at the time. Baytex disclosed a major oil discovery in a monthly public disclosure to the local regulator, but didn’t formally announce it in a press release. The market appeared to overlook the development, so I bought a lot of stock Baytex and wrote an article highlighting the opportunity. Baytex’s stock subsequently increased by more than 300% over the following year, helped by the company’s later formal announcement of the discovery:

I believe a similar disconnect is playing out with this company. In this article, I’ll explain what’s changed, why the asset could become much more valuable, and why I’ve been adding to my stock position here.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. I own shares and/or related securities of companies mentioned and may buy or sell them at any time. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Investments incur risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

Read more

I’ve spent nearly two decades professionally investing in energy. Bison Insights provides a real-time look at how I analyze the market, identify opportunities, and update my views as the facts change.

My Investment Approach

I look for large discrepancies between market price and intrinsic value, and I often find the best opportunities in smaller companies or securities that investors have overlooked or misunderstood.

My process starts with understanding the business, what it owns, how it generates cash, and why the market may be valuing it incorrectly. I also speak with executives, industry specialists, investors, and others throughout the oil and gas value chain to pressure-test my conclusions.

I prefer to focus on a smaller number of high-conviction ideas where I think the market is missing something important, explain the thesis clearly, and continue updating it as the story develops.

I or funds I advise own the securities I write about, which I disclose. These ideas can be volatile and involve a real risk of loss. What I generally look for is asymmetry, though, where the upside potential is much greater than the downside risk.

The Bison Insights composite tracker shows how the ideas have performed together since publication compared with the oil and gas sector and the broader market:

Subscribe now

Example Idea: A High-Risk, High-Upside Warrant

One recent success case captures this approach was a set of warrants tied to a publicly traded energy services company.

On February 6, 2026, I published A High-Upside Potential, High-Risk Opportunity Levered to Oil and a Cyclical Recovery. The thesis was relatively straightforward: the company had high leverage to an offshore drilling recovery, its stock traded at a steep discount to replacement cost, and the warrants were a low-cost way to gain exposure to that recovery.

The thesis played out very positively over the subsequent period, resulting in substantial outperformance. On March 19, I exited the position, locking-in a 276% gain since publication:

This was an unusually successful outcome and shouldn’t be viewed as representative of what every idea will do. But it illustrates what I’m looking for and trying to share: an overlooked security where the potential payoff appears much larger than the market is pricing in.

Expert Interviews and Industry Access

As part of my research process, I regularly speak with the management of the companies I write about, including CEOs, CFOs, and other C-suite executives and sometimes other current / former employees of these companies.

Some of these conversations are shared directly through recorded interviews and live discussions, sometimes with subscriber Q&A. These expert interviews can be accessed here: Bison Insights Expert Interviews.

These conversations provide context that often doesn’t show up in a financial model or public filing. They help me understand management’s forward-looking capital-allocation priorities, operating conditions, industry constraints, and the risks that could challenge my thesis.

Macro Commentary

Oil and gas equities are affected by commodity prices, inventories, supply and demand, drilling activity, capital spending, infrastructure, and geopolitics. I regularly write about these broader forces and explain how they affect the specific securities I’m following.

For example, a recurring part of this work is tracking physical oil inventories. The Big Four inventory tracker combines U.S. crude oil, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel inventories. It helps show whether the physical data is confirming or challenging the prevailing market narrative:

I also share timely oil-market observations through articles, live discussions, and the Bison Insights chat, where I’m generally active on weekday mornings and share my real-time daily thoughts with paid subscribers.

What Subscribers Receive

Free subscribers receive high-level market insights, macro context, and an introduction to the types of oil and gas investment opportunities I’m tracking.

Paid subscribers receive the company and security names, thorough investment theses, supporting valuation and financial charts and tables, expert interviews, and regular updates.

Pro tier subscribers also access live in-depth idea and macro presentations monthly, with special Q&A sessions. This tier is oriented to larger oil & gas investors, industry executives, family office investors, and fund managers.

My hope is that the research helps you become a sharper and better-informed energy investor. My full, organized article directory can be found here: Bison Insights Article Directory.

If this is the type of research you find useful, I’d be glad to have you here. Subscribe to Bison Insights:

Subscribe now

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This isn’t an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself.

Praise for Bison Insights

Despite the recent pullback in commodity prices, Canadian drilling activity has increased substantially. The Canadian drilling rig count averaged its highest level in Q2 in over a decade:

Production and drilling activity have been rising because well economics are compelling - and are improving in a number of areas. The graphs below, sourced from two large Canadian operators, Canadian Natural Resources and Tourmaline Oil illustrate the improving well economics in two of these areas:

The evolving Canadian oil and gas story receives far less attention than U.S. shale, but it’s one I’ve been involved in professionally for more than a decade as an investor. I also served as chairman of the board of a Canadian E&P for almost two years, which I helped to turn around and then sold at a premium.

With activity now accelerating and interest increasing, it is timely to share my thoughts on this trend, as well as my favorite Canadian oil & gas stocks that stand to benefit from the broader increase in production, drilling activity, and capital spending.

These Canadian names make up a large portion of the Bison Insights composite index, which has increased substantially more than the broader energy market since Bison Insights launched last year. These companies are still overlooked, and have much more room to run in my view:

In this article, I’ll review the broader shift of capital into Canadian oil and gas and some of the companies positioned to be major beneficiaries.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Investments incur risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

Subscribe now

Last week, I wrote about oil prices and the infrequent, high historical success oil price signal that came up at the st…

Read more

While oil and much of the energy complex have sold off over the last couple of months, one energy sub-sector is trading at new all-time highs, despite deteriorating fundamentals and a much weaker forward outlook. Sentiment is extremely bullish, and this area is now getting significant attention in the financial press. The positive press, high share prices and record profits suggest much of the upside in this sub-sector is already priced in, while the risk is heavily skewed to the downside.

This article highlights the trade I am making to profit from this downside risk potential, with limited capital at risk and multi-bagger potential upside. This is the seventeenth idea I’ve published so far here on Bison Insights, and will be added to the performance tracker. These ideas have outperformed the energy sector (XOP) and the market (SPY) since publication:

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Investments incur risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

A rare bullish oil market indicator just flashed “buy”. This has only flashed a few times over the past two decades, with each prior episode followed by strong oil price and oil equity performance.

It is somewhat similar to the unofficial “Economist indicator.” The Economist has had some notably wrong calls around major oil turning points, including “Drowning in oil” in 1999, “The end of the Oil Age” in 2003, and “Is it the end of the oil age?” in late 2020. Each came near a low point in oil sentiment and was followed by a significant rise in oil prices and oil equities.

More recently, The Economist published a bullish oil cover story in early May when oil prices were above $100 per barrel, after which oil prices have fallen by over 30%. Then last week, The Economist published “We woz wrong about oil.” Could this mark the bottom?

The Economist “indicator” is a somewhat humorous example, but it is useful in gauging oil market sentiment preceding major turning points.

What I find more reliable is a signal that combines this kind of sentiment read with actual physical-market data. The indicator I’m highlighting in this article does that: it is rarer, tied directly to the physical oil market, and has historically appeared near moments of extreme pessimism. Each prior episode was followed by strong outperformance from oil stocks.

Below, I walk through the signal that just flashed, what happened the last few times, and how it fits with my broader oil market fundamental view.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more

I found a small cap oil & gas producer that has multiple paths to success. Two catalysts could re-rate this company’s stock, presenting potential multi-bagger upside in their shares - even if oil prices don’t rise from here!

The first catalyst is from continued success in the company’s new oil development, where it has achieved improving well results, with a deep inventory of remaining locations. The market is not pricing in the upside potential from this company’s strong oil well results. If the good results continue, or if they get even better, or if oil prices move back higher from here, this company’s stock price could soar.

The second catalyst is improved local natural gas pricing. The AI power theme and LNG export buildout have taken a backseat to oil market news recently, but they are picking up steam. There are a wave of proposed data center loads and behind-the-meter power projects emerging in the company’s home gas market, and enormous growth in LNG export capacity in North America over the next few years. Since most of this company’s production is natural gas, it is well positioned to benefit from these trends.

The company currently trades at a very low valuation, and either or both of these two catalysts could lead to a valuation multiple re-rating and multi-bagger upside for the stock:

In this article, I’ll review these two catalysts in more detail, along with the key risks that I see. This is the sixteenth idea that I’ve written about here on Bison Insights, with most of the others doing very well since I first wrote about them, leading to outperformance of the Bison Insights Idea Composite since publication:

For a full list of the stocks and related securities I’ve written about so far, along with updates on those ideas, expert interviews (including in some cases with executives at the companies I write about), and broader macro commentary, you can access the Bison Insights Article Directory.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Read more