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The shares have performed well since publication, and the repeatability of the new wells remains the center of the thesis. I recently spoke with the company’s CEO about the well results, its larger capital program and the outlook from here.

Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares in the company discussed and may buy or sell them at any time without further notice. This interview is for informational and educational purposes only and isn’t investment advice.

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Commodity Culture is a top commodities podcast, with over 130,000 subscribers. Jesse Day hosts the podcast.

I interviewed Jesse here on Bison Insights in May of this year. Jesse shared what he has learned interviewing leading commodities experts, his thoughts on selecting commodities and producer equities, and his experience selecting a Bison Insights idea - which he bought and did very well with!

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*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares discussed and may buy or sell it at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.

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I referenced this article in the discussion:

*Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Here are some the charts I addressed:

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I also discussed the latest idea update, which came out yesterday. The stock has done well:

And I see a lot more potential upside from here:

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I enjoy doing these ad hoc live videos - let me know what you think, and have a great weekend!

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Here’s a link to the original thesis:

The stock has nearly do…

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I found it instructive to hear about Jesse’s experience, as a real-world Bison Insights reader success case. I particularly appreciate the trajectory - Jesse read about the idea here on Bison Insights, considered alternatives, did his own diligence, and made his own educated decision about it.

In particular, Jesse was originally interested in a large US producer, which had specific challenges that I wrote about, and instead ended up buying shares in this large Canadian producer, which I also wrote about. I published an update on this idea recently. And it’s done great:

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As we discussed in the conversation, Jesse created a leading YouTube channel called Commodities Culture - where he not only interviews, industry experts, fund managers, and CEOs, but also has created the #1 documentaries on critical commodities such as platinum:

I appreciate Jesse’s unique perspective, and I am glad to share it with you here.

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*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares and related securities of companies discussed and may buy or sell them at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.

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In recent meetings with senior executives of oil & gas producers and services companies, I continue to hear about more rigs running and more oil wells being drilled. And I’m seeing more and more evidence that the driller thesis is playing out, as shown below.

Meanwhile, Bison Insights’ idea performance has continued to be beyond reasonable expectations:

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I was asked where to find Bison Insights merch like “Drill Baby Drill” hats, which you can find here. I’ve been donating the net proceeds of merch sales to the Houston Zoo.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself.

Disclaimer: As a reminder, I own shares of AKITA, I am not recommending them, this is for informati…

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The outperformance appears to reflect growing market expectations that North American oilfield services activity will begin to rebound soon. In a recent article, I analyzed the historical relationship between higher oil prices and rig additions and found that rigs are typically added with a lag, then build gradually over time.

We’re still very early in the cycle, only about five weeks removed from the post-Hormuz closure rise in oil prices. If the historical rig-addition pattern holds, rigs should begin to be added over the coming weeks and months, improving utilization, day rates, and cash flow for oilfield services companies. The CEO’s comments in my interview were consistent with that pattern beginning to play out: conversations are picking up, and he is ‘pretty confident we will be at higher utilization by June.’

Improved utilization not only improves cash flow, but also signals a tighter oilfield services market, making existing equipment more valuable and pushing the stock closer to replacement cost, which is far above the current valuation based on management’s own estimate and relevant industry data:

There is a value investment saying, to “buy cyclicals at a discount to book value and sell on a multiple of earnings.” This appears to be one such opportunity, with the stock still trading very cheaply at the beginning of an apparent turn of the cycle. Yet it is also generating substantial EBITDA and free cash flow - an oddity that I am capitalizing on via large position sizing.

For more color and a more in-depth discussion of the company’s history and operations, I’m pleased to share the interview below. I also show a chart illustrating the historical path of oil prices and rig activity - they say that history doesn’t repeat, but that it does rhyme.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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30% Off Sale

I referenced the most recent Bison Insights sale email:

and the great performance most Bison Insights ideas have achieved so far, on an absolute basis and vs the oil & gas ETF XOP:

Let me know what you think!

30% Off Sale

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer of securities, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not be indicative.

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not be indicative.

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By request, I’m sharing an updated oil market analysis and macro perspective, along with three of my favorite oil stock ideas with huge upside potential from higher oil prices. This is not an offer, …

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40% Off Sale

The ideas on Bison Insights have done great. Come check them out:

40% Off Sale

Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an investment offer, solicitation, or recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself.

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Let me know what you think about this! And if you haven’t already, make sure to subscribe to Bison Insights - there’s a 50% off sale through the end of January!

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Not an offer, solicitation or recommendation. Past performance may not be indicative. For informational and educational purposes only. Do not rely.

The simplest way to gain exposure is to own a company with decades of oil reserves. As new supply becomes harder and more expensive to develop, oil prices must rise to incentivize drilling. But if you already control reserves that can last 30 to 40 years, you do not need to keep spending capital to replace production. When prices rise, the value of what you already own increases, and most of that upside flows directly into profits.

The company I highlighted has roughly 30 years of oil reserves at current production levels. And over the past several years, it has undergone a major operational inflection, delivering record production, steadily declining operating costs, and a meaningful improvement in its second major operating segment. A close peer that achieved a similar combination of production growth and cost reductions saw its share price rerate sharply higher. This company, however, has lagged meaningfully, despite comparable operating progress:

In my view, this valuation disconnect is unwarranted. In addition to substantially improving its core operating performance, the company recently completed a large acquisition that appears far more accretive than the market is giving it credit for, extending its already long reserve life and unlocking material operating efficiencies across its core assets.

To dig deeper into the quality of these assets and the true economics of the acquisition, I interviewed an expert who previously spent nearly a decade as a senior reservoir engineer at the company I wrote about, followed by several years in a similar role for a large U.S. oil producer with high-performing local assets. He is a thought leader, having advanced more than a dozen patents related to local area oil production and emissions reduction and now runs his own company helping local operators optimize production from their assets.

The full interview is available below, including a full transcript.

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The free cash flow from this segment alone equates to nearly a 10% yield at today’s valuation, notwithstanding the further growth that’s expected ahead.

At the same time, the company also operates a second major division that is currently in a deep cyclical downturn, and the market appears overly focused on this weaker segment, which is weighing down the stock. But in my view, the combination of this temporarily depressed business line and the accelerating growth of the gas-infrastructure division creates a setup for significant upside as the cycle turns.

I recently had the opportunity to interview the company’s Chief Executive Officer, who has led the business since it debuted at $0.10 per share nearly 30 years ago and now trades above $10 per share. In our conversation, he provides a detailed look at both business divisions, how he is thinking about their trajectories going forward, and why his company is aggressively buying back stock in light of these dynamics.

The full interview is available below, including a full transcript.

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If a global recession hits, how far could oil prices really fall, and how quickly might they recover?

Is Africa poised to be one of the fastest-growing sources of oil demand?

What can past cycles teach us about today’s oil market psychology?

Where is the most misunderstood upside in energy stocks right now?

These are just a few of the questions answered in my recent interview with an oil market expert, a partner at a leading energy strategy firm with decades of experience at name-brand energy market participants.

The full interview can be found below:

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