Eight High-Conviction Oil & Gas Ideas: Review and Outlook
A look back at my original theses, how they’ve performed versus the broader energy market, and what comes next heading into 2026.
Since launching Bison Insights, I’ve shared eight differentiated oil and gas stock-related ideas. So far, my ideas have performed well relative to the broader energy market (as measured by the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, XOP), with big outperformance from the winners and only small underperformance from the two losers so far:
Idea #2, which I originally discussed in A 1,000%+ Opportunity with Three Ways to Win (With Risk of a Zero), is up nearly 500% since publication! Because that level of performance distorts the scale of the comparison for the other ideas, I excluded it from the chart above and am showing it separately in its own chart below:
These eight ideas span oil producers, natural gas producers, and oilfield services firms. On the oil side, prices are now near five-year lows. Because the industry is cyclical, periods like this — when prices fall below the marginal cost required to bring on new supply — have historically been some of the best times to invest:
On the natural gas side, North America is facing unprecedented demand growth over the next several years, driven by LNG export capacity expansions and rising electricity needs from AI data centers:
As natural gas demand accelerates, the gas market is likely to shift from a “supply-push” environment, where price-insensitive associated gas growth from the Permian has dominated, to a “demand-pull” market in which prices must rise to incentivize new dry-gas production. That dynamic should support structurally higher natural gas prices.
Higher oil and gas prices also benefit oilfield services companies, which see stronger utilization and pricing as drilling activity increases.
The ideas I’ve written about so far are high-conviction: many have a margin of safety, with a degree of downside protection if commodity prices weaken, potentially attractive returns if prices stay flat, and substantial upside if prices rise.
In this update, I revisit each idea, summarize the original thesis, and discuss what has happened since publication, including what’s working, what has changed, and where I see things heading as we move into 2026.
Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself. These are my personal views, and do not represent any other individual or organization.
