What a shame that the management and governance is so lacking. They really need to execute and unlock the value of this company. I started buying a year ago and remain optimistic.
Josh - As always a solid report with great insights: This reader's takeaway and purely my opinion.:
1) A buyout will save existing shareholders, leaving mgt/the board to think they're corporate geniuses. The absence of a buyout leaves shareholders with a company that succeeds in spite of itself. Unlike UNTC that aggressively uses FCF to pay down debt and better the company's/shareholders position, no inkling of that from JOY. The fact that AIMCo. is willing to leave things be smells but that's the overall trend of the financial/political world today.
2) The electricity generation and gas fired power operations will be winners. On the exploration side, Spartan Delta is laughing all the way to the bank as the "benefit split" between SD and JOY points to a deal made by JOY mgt desperate to stay afloat.
3) I'd rather put my money in UNTC where the company is improving and management has a vision and works to execute it for the betterment of the company and its shareholders. Should AI expansion and supply/demand metrics get turned upside down, JOY will not see the body check coming that sends them into the boards, head-first.
I own both. There are pros and cons to each. I don’t think anyone would think their board and management were geniuses if they sold at lets say $4/share, after IPO’ing the company 13 years ago at $12/share and nearly bankrupting it multiple times in the interim.
Bought some. Would love your take on eog sometime - I know not a small cap - has traded horribly and is growing nat gas production- I’m probably too long - we’ll see
Do you have any confidence that Alex and team will perform any better especially getting their costs down? They could save millions just by not giving bonuses to a team that constantly misses on every metric and goal. What happened with Alex who had a good track record until a few years ago?
I'm not certain I can invest more money with Alex Verge. The man hasn't delivered on anything his has ever promised. Even given best circumstances, I expect him to screw it up.
Interesting Josh. I’m not convinced by the management team and their major backer. Their record on operational, financial and governance metrics is decidedly mixed. I get the value, but I’m not sure why we would expect relative out performance in future from a team who have historically under-delivered. What changes? Maybe I’m missing something Josh.
I think the power projects finally turning on and the growing high margin, high return Duvernay production should move the needle on this one. But the risk here is certainly the governance.
Interesting to hear what potential value might be by 2030 at current commodity prices when Duvernay and energy biz will be running full steam. Seems like a $10-15 stock to me by that time.
I may buy or sell shares at any time, (after a few day "cooling-off" period after a Bison Insights article), but I find the current value proposition and upcoming catalysts compelling enough that I think I own more shares now than I did a year ago. Insiders seem to agree with me, having bought significantly more shares this year.
Thank you for the questions, concerns and pushback. I appreciate them, and I think they further the goal of educating and informing subscribers. Please keep them coming.
Also, please make sure to check out this video clip of Mike Rose addressing Alberta natural gas prices and sharing his forecast (this was unusual, he is very well respected partially for being so circumspect). This was pivotal in my decision to share this idea at this time. https://x.com/inthemoneypod/status/1978170238601511127
As I mentioned in the article, Journey projects an $8 million annual cash flow increase from every $1 increase in Alberta natural gas prices. If prices do rise from the recent near $0 to $3/mcf, this would be material to Journey's cash flows. This of course comes with risks and uncertainties.
What a shame that the management and governance is so lacking. They really need to execute and unlock the value of this company. I started buying a year ago and remain optimistic.
It really helps that the Duvernay is being developed by Spartan and that the power projects are so close to completion (hopefully!)
Josh - As always a solid report with great insights: This reader's takeaway and purely my opinion.:
1) A buyout will save existing shareholders, leaving mgt/the board to think they're corporate geniuses. The absence of a buyout leaves shareholders with a company that succeeds in spite of itself. Unlike UNTC that aggressively uses FCF to pay down debt and better the company's/shareholders position, no inkling of that from JOY. The fact that AIMCo. is willing to leave things be smells but that's the overall trend of the financial/political world today.
2) The electricity generation and gas fired power operations will be winners. On the exploration side, Spartan Delta is laughing all the way to the bank as the "benefit split" between SD and JOY points to a deal made by JOY mgt desperate to stay afloat.
3) I'd rather put my money in UNTC where the company is improving and management has a vision and works to execute it for the betterment of the company and its shareholders. Should AI expansion and supply/demand metrics get turned upside down, JOY will not see the body check coming that sends them into the boards, head-first.
I own both. There are pros and cons to each. I don’t think anyone would think their board and management were geniuses if they sold at lets say $4/share, after IPO’ing the company 13 years ago at $12/share and nearly bankrupting it multiple times in the interim.
Bought some. Would love your take on eog sometime - I know not a small cap - has traded horribly and is growing nat gas production- I’m probably too long - we’ll see
Do you have any confidence that Alex and team will perform any better especially getting their costs down? They could save millions just by not giving bonuses to a team that constantly misses on every metric and goal. What happened with Alex who had a good track record until a few years ago?
Curious as to any reason Alberta Investment Management Company gave to support Alex and his team. Is pot legal up in Canada? lol
I'm not certain I can invest more money with Alex Verge. The man hasn't delivered on anything his has ever promised. Even given best circumstances, I expect him to screw it up.
Like I said above, it really helps that the Duvernay is being developed by Spartan and that the power projects are so close to completion (hopefully!)
Interesting Josh. I’m not convinced by the management team and their major backer. Their record on operational, financial and governance metrics is decidedly mixed. I get the value, but I’m not sure why we would expect relative out performance in future from a team who have historically under-delivered. What changes? Maybe I’m missing something Josh.
I think the power projects finally turning on and the growing high margin, high return Duvernay production should move the needle on this one. But the risk here is certainly the governance.
What gives you so much confidence they will come on line soon? Everytime JOY sets a new date for this to happen they miss it.
Interesting to hear what potential value might be by 2030 at current commodity prices when Duvernay and energy biz will be running full steam. Seems like a $10-15 stock to me by that time.
Lots of upside potential, but also risk of further value destruction due to poor governance. The pros outweigh the cons for me here.
So can you comment if you/Bison are selling the shares you have in JOY then because that is what seems to be implied by this comment?
I may buy or sell shares at any time, (after a few day "cooling-off" period after a Bison Insights article), but I find the current value proposition and upcoming catalysts compelling enough that I think I own more shares now than I did a year ago. Insiders seem to agree with me, having bought significantly more shares this year.
Thank you for the questions, concerns and pushback. I appreciate them, and I think they further the goal of educating and informing subscribers. Please keep them coming.
Also, please make sure to check out this video clip of Mike Rose addressing Alberta natural gas prices and sharing his forecast (this was unusual, he is very well respected partially for being so circumspect). This was pivotal in my decision to share this idea at this time. https://x.com/inthemoneypod/status/1978170238601511127
As I mentioned in the article, Journey projects an $8 million annual cash flow increase from every $1 increase in Alberta natural gas prices. If prices do rise from the recent near $0 to $3/mcf, this would be material to Journey's cash flows. This of course comes with risks and uncertainties.