Journey Energy Rises as Key Catalysts Unfold
Duvernay development is accelerating and the first big power plant is online
On October 18, 2025, I published my original Journey Energy investment thesis, From Money Pit to Money Maker.
Since publication, Journey’s share price has increased by 79%, compared to 48% for the broader oil and gas market, as measured by the XOP Energy ETF:
Journey’s share price outperformance has been accompanied by meaningful progress in both parts of my original thesis. There has also been some social-media speculation that Journey could be acquired by its joint venture partner:
I don’t know whether Journey or any potential buyer is discussing a transaction, and I have no view on whether one will happen in the near term.
But my investment thesis doesn’t depend on Journey being acquired - it rests on the value of the base business, as well as the development of their Duvernay and power generation assets.
Bison Insights Journey Thesis
At the time of publication of the “From Money Pit to Money Maker” thesis in October 2025, Journey’s existing oil and gas production supported much of the company’s market valuation. In fact, the year-end reserve value was considerably higher than what investors were paying for the entire company.
On top of that existing business, Journey owned two potentially extremely valuable assets that were contributing little to current financial results: its interest in the Duvernay joint venture and its power-generation projects.
Because those assets were either still consuming capital or early in development, the market appeared to assign them little value. As the projects would begin contributing cash flow, I thought the value of them would become apparent to the market and Journey’s stock price would increase.
I think we’re still in the early innings of this value realization process, with lots of room to run as these two catalysts continue to progress. And today’s NAV estimate from Journey is above $14 per share, indicating potential increased upside.
Duvernay Development Is Accelerating
Journey owns a 30% interest in a Duvernay joint venture operated by Spartan Delta. The results of the wells drilled so far have been great and are improving:
The four most recent wells averaged approximately 1,115 boe/d over their first 30 days, with 84% liquids - very strong results. More wells are expected to come online later this year, which should drive further production growth and cash flow.
There is lots of inventory in Journey’s Duvernay, and Journey expects significantly more production from this play over time at highly attractive rates of return that will grow the NAV of the asset:
Gilby Power Has Begun Generating Revenue
The second part of the thesis is also finally moving in the right direction.
Journey spent years developing its Gilby power project. During that period, the project consumed cash without generating revenue, and repeated delays made it difficult for investors to assign much value to it.
This changed on June 24, 2026, when Gilby made its first power sales to the Alberta grid.
The power plant at Gilby has now moved from a cash drain into an operating asset that generates revenue. I highlighted this change in “Ahead of the Press Release” - at a time when it appeared in Journey’s corporate presentation but had not yet been press released. It helps to pay attention!
Ahead of the Press Release: Catalyst Realized
An asset under development by one of my largest holdings, which I first wrote about in From Money Pit to Money Maker, just reached an important inflection point. For the last several years, this asset had been consuming cash - but it will now start generating cash flow.
Gilby’s startup also makes Journey’s similar sized power project at Mazeppa more credible. Journey still has to complete and operate Mazeppa successfully, but bringing Gilby to first sales demonstrates that the broader power strategy is viable and working, albeit with delays and cost overruns.
Why There May Still Be More Upside
Journey’s share price has appreciated since my article about them in October. At C$5.43 per share, the valuation backstop from its existing production and reserves is less pronounced than it was at C$3.03.
However, the higher share price has also been accompanied by improving operations. Duvernay development is on pace and accelerating, and the wells continue to perform well. Gilby is now operating and selling power. And Mazeppa should provide another source of future cash flow.
In my view, the market still does not reflect the potential value of these assets as they move further into production and begin contributing more meaningfully to Journey’s financial results. And Journey’s market capitalization is still far from the $14.76/share NAV Journey cites in its recent corporate presentation.
While a premium buyout of Journey could accelerate a positive outcome for shareholders, as discussed publicly on social media by a prominent former fund manager and others, a buyout is not required for my Journey thesis to continue working.
*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own Journey stock and may buy or sell it at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.