Winter is Here, Natural Gas Prices are Rallying, and the Future for Natural Gas is Bright - But Risks Loom in 2026
Analysis and Implications of Risk in 2026 and Upside in 2027 and Beyond - and a Few "Margin of Safety" Natural Gas Ideas with Multi-Year Upside Potential
Weather Driven Natural Gas Price Surge
“Get ready to have your doors blown off by Mother Nature. She's not playing.” - Ryan Maue, Meteorologist.
Cold weather forecasts over the weekend have sent natural gas spot prices up ~10% and the forward natural gas curve up ~5% for 2026. However, without sustained colder weather, there are elevated risks to natural gas prices and related producers in 2026. The low valuations of Bison Insights natural gas levered ideas, and their low costs, low debt and rapid growth in some cases, could mean a margin of safety if these risks actualize:
LNG Update
In early 2025, my team at Bison Interests published analysis on the US natural gas market with a bullish view, in a white paper titled “All Eyes on Natural Gas in 2025 – Bison’s Bullish Gas View.” This paper highlighted the scale of the demand coming online and explained why LNG facilities would likely be built faster than expected, driven by advances in construction planning and execution I had observed in other facilities. That view has so far played out, with the U.S. setting an LNG export record in 2025 driven by a “rapid ramp at new facilities.”
Looking ahead, U.S. LNG export capacity is set to expand further. The EIA recently reaffirmed its view that U.S. LNG exports will roughly double from 2024 levels by the end of the decade. As the EIA highlights, the five major U.S. LNG export facilities on the horizon are:
Golden Pass LNG (2.1 Bcf/d) — Train 1 in Q1 2026, Trains 2 and 3 in late 2026 and 2027
Rio Grande LNG (2.1 Bcf/d) — 2027
Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (1.6 Bcf/d) — 2027 and 2028
CP2 Phase 1 (2.0 Bcf/d) — 2027
Woodside Louisiana LNG (2.2 Bcf/d) — 2029
Together, these projects are expected to add ~10 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity by the end of the decade, which represents a meaningful increase in demand.
Sounds great, right? Unfortunately, there are a few factors that are challenging for the US natural gas market in the near term, ahead of these enormous LNG export capacity expansions in 2027 and beyond.
