Oil Price Falls, Bison Insights Ideas Rise
Idea performance update and reminder that "founder" subscriptions are 50% off through the end of the month.
Oil crashed on Friday, down ~5% for the day, as trade war concerns resurfaced. It is timely to share a performance update on the four ideas I’ve written about in the Bison Insights newsletter.
Each idea has outperformed the broader energy market since publication, as measured by the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). All have seen their shares increase so far since publication. One high risk idea has done particularly well:
I believe that stocks eventually trade in line with their fundamental value. The shares of the ideas highlighted here were, in my view, priced well below their fundamental value. Their recent performance is a reminder that that mispriced securities can offer not only significant upside in market upswings, but also a margin of safety that can help buoy their prices during market downturns.
Buyouts of Unpublished Ideas
In addition to the outperformance of these initial ideas, two more companies that I own (and were in my queue to feature on Bison Insights) recently announced that they are being acquired at sizable premiums — ROK Resources at a 45% all-in premium and STEP Energy Services at a 29% premium.
Sophisticated buyers were willing to pay these premiums because the market had been pricing these companies at steep discounts to their intrinsic values. Underinvestment and capital outflows in the energy sector have left many similar companies trading well below my estimate of their true worth. I’m excited to share more of these high-upside potential ideas in the coming months.
Expert Interviews - Recent and Coming Soon!
On the expert interview front, Bison Insights subscribers had their questions answered on Thursday in an interview with the CFO of a company I wrote about in September. The shares of that company have risen after a catalyst has played out, with the potential for it to pay a very high dividend in the future after paying down debt and buying back shares.
I’m also excited to announce that this Friday I’ll be interviewing a famous oil market expert, with the full discussion available exclusively to premium subscribers - including a Q&A session where subscriber questions will be addressed (to the extent possible).
50% Off Sale Ends at the End of October
As a reminder, the Bison Insights 50% Off Founding Subscription Sale runs through the end of the month. Its less than $1 per day!
As a premium subscriber, you’ll gain full access to my detailed write-ups and data-backed reasoning behind some my favorite oil and gas ideas, along with exclusive interviews with company executives and market experts - all designed to help you become sharper and more informed in energy markets.
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. This is not an offer, solicitation, or investment recommendation. I, and funds I advise, own shares and related securities in the companies referenced. Please consult an advisor and do your own diligence. Past performance may not repeat itself.