Wars Raging, Production Falling, Strait Closed - Why Isn't Oil $100+?
Recent interview on Commodities Culture
I was fortunate to be invited to share my views on oil markets on Commodity Culture this week - the leading commodities podcast. You can tell I wasn’t involved in the editing from the picture!
Commodity Culture is a top commodities podcast, with over 130,000 subscribers. Jesse Day hosts the podcast.
I interviewed Jesse here on Bison Insights in May of this year. Jesse shared what he has learned interviewing leading commodities experts, his thoughts on selecting commodities and producer equities, and his experience selecting a Bison Insights idea - which he bought and did very well with!
*Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares discussed and may buy or sell it at any time without further notice. There can be no assurance of return or accuracy of anything written. Any investment decision requires diligence and, if appropriate, an advisor should be consulted. I am not your advisor, and this is meant for general information and educational purposes and not as personalized investment advice. No personalized advice can or will be provided by Bison Insights. Past performance may not repeat itself. The views expressed here are solely my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions, strategies, or positions of any other person or organization.
One point I would appreciate a little bit of magnitude insight into is the following: I consistently hear from many specialists in the oil/gas sector that I respect that, since 2015 the world has underinvested capital into the discovery and development of new oil and gas inventory/production, resulting in an eventual shortfall which will result in a demand/supply imbalance favoring higher oil/gas prices. That was mentioned in the interview with Jesse. That sounds reasonable, and people show charts to back up the premise. However, at the granular level, every single company I follow in the US and Canada produced more oil and gas in 2025 than they did in 2024, and they will produce even more in 2026, and project even higher levels in 2027. Saturn, Obsidian, Vermillion, Petrobras, Yangarra, Journey, Cenovus, Crescent, etc. They are all growing production. How do you reconcile the first statement of insufficient capital expenditure with all of these companies growing production at rates greater than the rate of annual demand increase? I feel like a person living in Seattle who is told that the world is in the midst of a great drought; I have trouble reconciling that fact with what I see around me every day.