Hi Josh, I just Checked this company a few days ago, what about the hegdes they have? It looks like is a big portion of their production of 2026 to 2028. It will limit a lot of the upside?
I read they are 85% hedged at $64.29 all the way to q1 2028. Any chance this can be renegotiated? Seems odd to hedge so much at such historically low prices. Any thoughts why they did this? It would be great to get your analysis on this situation. People are really hammering on this point on message boards. Thanks!
Hedges are contracts - there isn't an easy or cheap "fix". These low-price hedges reduce the upside from short term higher prices, however incremental volumes are unhedged and higher prices help with asset values and financing availability even for assets that are hedged in the near term.
Some insider buying. Big insider changes recently, and important non public discussions on refinancing are likely going on, so I wouldn't expect any until after that's announced one way or the other.
Not sure it would help but worthy of mention, I have a great relationship with the team at Edgepoint and this is the type of paper they might be interested in for their Credit opportunities fund. They were key lenders to TNZ on their initial debt underwriting and subsequent offerings. Thoughts?
Great, smart team, can't hurt to share this with them if they aren't already subscribers. I'm going to pick up my institutional sales efforts for the Pro-Tier at some point.
Thanks Josh! Position sizing is obviously key here but if 2 go to zero and 1 is up 1000% this is a material win. that is how I am mentally framing the expectations for myself but I suspect the odds might be actually better than that if oil stays high here. Appreciate the content tremendously.
Thanks. Please don't rely on the past performance or the analogies I shared in the article. Its entirely possible that those worked but this one won't. But they're not entirely independent variables.
At some point could we have in one place a graphic/chart or just list of some kind that tracks performance of all the ideas since you published them? 2) If so could it be done without each idea being labeled idea #1, idea #2 on so one.
Related to the above, maybe I am the only one mentally challenged to remember for any purpose like comps when you reference them this way to other ideas in your write-ups as well.
Josh - Interesting idea. A couple of questions. Why not leave Richard Frommer as CEO - he seems more than capable of knowing what needs to be done to execute a successful turnaround. Piggybacking off the below question, would a refinance done below 15% be a "win" for the company, especially if the warrants are killed off?
1) I'm not sure, I like that he's agreed to be interim CEO. 2) anything priced below that with no or limited warrants would be a huge "win" for the stock in my view
Question on PROP? If they are not able to raise the cash by 3-26 how much do you think the downside is if everything else stays the the same like assuming the current $100 oil price?
I’ve treated it like nearly 100% downside in figuring my expected value, but there is an argument that a big portion of the potential dilution without a refinancing is already “priced in”.
I dig it, seems like position sizing is key, dont need a large position but can make alot, if it doesnt work out, no huge hit to overall portfolio, also like the weekly divergence forming on rsi. Do you share any ideas on position sizing for each of your recommended ideas ?
Thanks for the update! This is going to be interesting! Not worried since it is only a small 1% position size for me (started it as only 0.5% then added) to limit the downside given the risk. So huge upside potential but limited downside and I sleep like a baby. This is how i manage risk at least: position size.
Hi Josh, I just Checked this company a few days ago, what about the hegdes they have? It looks like is a big portion of their production of 2026 to 2028. It will limit a lot of the upside?
Thank you for your insights.
Very hedged. I think in this case because of the low valuation, there's plenty of potential upside potential even with the hedges.
I read they are 85% hedged at $64.29 all the way to q1 2028. Any chance this can be renegotiated? Seems odd to hedge so much at such historically low prices. Any thoughts why they did this? It would be great to get your analysis on this situation. People are really hammering on this point on message boards. Thanks!
Hedges are contracts - there isn't an easy or cheap "fix". These low-price hedges reduce the upside from short term higher prices, however incremental volumes are unhedged and higher prices help with asset values and financing availability even for assets that are hedged in the near term.
Thanks for this Josh. Do you have an idea what the coupon on the debt would look like, assuming they could refinance, and
Any insider buying recently?
Some insider buying. Big insider changes recently, and important non public discussions on refinancing are likely going on, so I wouldn't expect any until after that's announced one way or the other.
Not sure it would help but worthy of mention, I have a great relationship with the team at Edgepoint and this is the type of paper they might be interested in for their Credit opportunities fund. They were key lenders to TNZ on their initial debt underwriting and subsequent offerings. Thoughts?
Great, smart team, can't hurt to share this with them if they aren't already subscribers. I'm going to pick up my institutional sales efforts for the Pro-Tier at some point.
Well I flipped a position yesterday and taking a larger position today. We will see.
Thanks Josh! Position sizing is obviously key here but if 2 go to zero and 1 is up 1000% this is a material win. that is how I am mentally framing the expectations for myself but I suspect the odds might be actually better than that if oil stays high here. Appreciate the content tremendously.
Thanks. Please don't rely on the past performance or the analogies I shared in the article. Its entirely possible that those worked but this one won't. But they're not entirely independent variables.
Thinking same position size is paramount
At some point could we have in one place a graphic/chart or just list of some kind that tracks performance of all the ideas since you published them? 2) If so could it be done without each idea being labeled idea #1, idea #2 on so one.
Related to the above, maybe I am the only one mentally challenged to remember for any purpose like comps when you reference them this way to other ideas in your write-ups as well.
Josh - Interesting idea. A couple of questions. Why not leave Richard Frommer as CEO - he seems more than capable of knowing what needs to be done to execute a successful turnaround. Piggybacking off the below question, would a refinance done below 15% be a "win" for the company, especially if the warrants are killed off?
1) I'm not sure, I like that he's agreed to be interim CEO. 2) anything priced below that with no or limited warrants would be a huge "win" for the stock in my view
Question on PROP? If they are not able to raise the cash by 3-26 how much do you think the downside is if everything else stays the the same like assuming the current $100 oil price?
I’ve treated it like nearly 100% downside in figuring my expected value, but there is an argument that a big portion of the potential dilution without a refinancing is already “priced in”.
Hi Josh, do you have a post that lists all your ideas/companies in a single post?
Yes, here: https://www.bisoninsights.info/p/article-directory
I dig it, seems like position sizing is key, dont need a large position but can make alot, if it doesnt work out, no huge hit to overall portfolio, also like the weekly divergence forming on rsi. Do you share any ideas on position sizing for each of your recommended ideas ?
I don't recommend anything. But this is a small position for me, because of the elevated risk of loss.
Thanks for the update! This is going to be interesting! Not worried since it is only a small 1% position size for me (started it as only 0.5% then added) to limit the downside given the risk. So huge upside potential but limited downside and I sleep like a baby. This is how i manage risk at least: position size.
Any update on this given we are 2 days away from the deadline and there hasnt been an announcement of a refinance? Thank you